A Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Hormone Replacement Therapy With ST-1891 Compared to Levothyroxine in Patients With Primary Hypothyroidism

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (7,397 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapypatientshormonehave receivedactive
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningcrossoverfemaleefficacycompared to
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study Evaluation the Safety and Efficacy of Hormone Replacement Therapy With North Star Compared to Levothyroxine in Patients With Primary Hypothyroidism NCT05712421 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study of Armour® Thyroid Compared to Synthetic T4 (Levothyroxine) in Previously Hypothyroid Participants NCT04124705 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Investigate Long Term Efficacy and Safety of Lonapegsomatropin in Adults With Growth Hormone Deficiency NCT05171855 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial of Dose-tolerance, Pharmacokinetics and Iodine Uptake For rhTSH In Post-thyroidectomized Patients NCT04137185 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Dose Study in Growth Hormone Deficient Adults Investigating Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of NNC126-0083 NCT00715689 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.