Study of Denosumab for Prevention of Skeletal Disease Progression in Children With Fibrous Dysplasia
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (785 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-01-09, after 2022-10-12 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: boneeligibleprioreffectiveserum
Phrases that lowered it: participantsvisitallergicmedical historyday -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 53.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 14 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 170580 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9647 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 4 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 4 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 14 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 37 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 170580 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 9647 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 53.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- denosumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Burosumab for Fibroblast Growth Factor-23 Mediated Hypophosphatemia in Fibrous Dysplasia NCT05509595 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- Open-label Extension of Study 20130173 of Denosumab in Children and Young Adults With Osteogenesis Imperfecta NCT03638128 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials terminated
- Bioequivalence Study of Denosumab CP4 Drug Product and Commercially Available Denosumab CP2 Drug Product NCT02053753 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Multicenter,Single-arm Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety, & Pharmacokinetics of Denosumab in Children w/ OI NCT02352753 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
- Denosumab for the Treatment of Osteoporosis in Children: A Pilot Study NCT02632916 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.