A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial of IkT-148009 in Untreated Parkinson's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: maculardegenerationeffectiveamdor equal
  Phrases that lowered it: effectparticipantsvolunteersthe pharmacokineticsaminotransferase
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess Single and Multiple Doses of IkT-148009 in Healthy Elderly Participants and Parkinson's Patients NCT04350177 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• NE3107 Activity and Safety in Patients With Parkinson's Disease Using Levodopa NCT05083260 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• PROSEEK: A Phase 2 Study In Early Parkinson's Disease Patients Evaluating The Safety And Efficacy Of Abl Tyrosine Kinase Inhibition Using K0706 NCT03655236 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
• Study of Urate Elevation in Parkinson's Disease, Phase 3 NCT02642393 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of TJ0113 Capsule in Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT06596005 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.