A Pharmacodynamics and Safety Study of DSP-9632P in Patients With Levodopa-Induced Dyskinesia in Parkinson's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectparkinson diseaseivplacebodisorder
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theand safetyto evaluatescreeningblood
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 53.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 5739 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of SEP-363856 in Subjects With Parkinson's Disease Psychosis NCT02969369 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• DNS-7801 vs. Placebo in Parkinson's Disease NCT03306329 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• A Study of an Investigational Drug to See How it Affects the People With Parkinson's Disease Complicated by Motor Fluctuations (OFF Episodes) Compared to an Approved Drug Used to Treat People With Parkinson's Disease Complicated by Motor Fluctuations (OFF Episodes) NCT03391882 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Cardiac Safety Study of an Investigational Drug to See How if Affects the Heart in People With Parkinson's Disease Complicated by Motor Fluctuations OFF Episodes NCT03187301 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Staccato Apomorphine (AZ-009) in Patients With Parkinson's Disease Experiencing OFF Episodes NCT05979415 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.