Antitumor Activity of Vactosertib in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Acral and Mucosal Melanoma Patients Progressed From Prior Immune Check Point Inhibitor
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-03-10, after 2023-02-09 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: radiationmetastasesinsulintumordose of
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantshas historydefinedcombination -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 94 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 541 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13083 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 49009 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 19 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 541 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 94 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 49009 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 13083 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 84.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- pembrolizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Overcoming Primary Resistance to Immunotherapy in Metastatic Melanoma NCT05304546 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Skin Cancer NCT02964559 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab With or Without Vismodegib in Treating Metastatic or Unresectable Basal Cell Skin Cancer NCT02690948 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- Switch Maintenance Pembrolizumab in Patients With NSCLC After First Line Platinum Doublet Chemotherapy NCT02705820 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Study of Oral Azacitidine (CC-486) in Combination With Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma NCT02816021 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.