Efficacy Evaluation Study of BAT5906 and Lucentis® in Patients With Macular Degeneration
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-04-22, after 2022-07-07 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-04-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 10% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: randomizationeyeeyesglaucomaophthalmic
Phrases that lowered it: macularstudy eyeintravitrealage relatedranibizumab -
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 88.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 10 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 10 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 20 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 23288 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 988 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 88.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ranibizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Compare the Efficacy and Safety of HLX04-O with Ranibizumab in Subjects with WAMD NCT05003245 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- A Phase 3 Study to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of HLX04-O with Ranibizumab in Subjects with WAMD NCT04740671 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Study of Two Multiple Intravitreal Doses of BAT5906 for Safety and Efficacy in Patients With Diabetic Macular Edema NCT04772105 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of HLX04-O in Subjects With wAMD NCT04993352 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- A Study to Compare JL14002 to Lucentis® in Subjects With Wet Age-related Macular Degeneration (wAMD) NCT07389577 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.