A Study on the Safety, Reactogenicity and Immune Response of a Vaccine Against Influenza in Healthy Younger and Older Adults
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (776 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-03-26, after 2022-08-09 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: interventionprioradequateenrollmentallowed
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinehealthyparticipantsinfluenzaparticipant -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 2701 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 100 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 13 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2701 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 100 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Assess the Safety and Immune Response of a Vaccine Against Influenza in Healthy Younger and Older Adults NCT05823974 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- A Study to Find the Dose and Assess the Immune Response and Safety of a Vaccine Against Influenza in Healthy Younger and Older Adults NCT06431607 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Immune Response and Safety of an Influenza Vaccine in Adults 18 Years of Age and Above NCT07204964 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess the Immune Response and Safety of a Vaccine Against Influenza in Adults 18 Years of Age and Older NCT07121192 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- A Study to Find and Confirm the Dose and Assess Safety, Reactogenicity and Immune Response of a Vaccine Against Pandemic H5N1 Influenza Virus in Healthy Younger and Older Adults NCT06382311 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.