Safety and Biologic Impact (Pharmacodynamics) of Repeated Injections and Increasing Amounts of UPB-101 in Asthmatics

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (355 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilitylunghepatitisascendingkidney
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmaparticipantparticipantsvisitscreening
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A First-in-human, Single-ascending-dose Study of IBI3002 in Healthy Participants and Mild to Moderate Asthmatics NCT06213844 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of Multiple Dose of IBI3002 in Healthy and Asthmatic Participants NCT06947408 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Safety and Tolerability of Single and Repeat Doses of PC786 NCT03236233 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Effects of PT027 (Budesonide/Albuterol Sulfate) Metered-dose Inhaler Compared With Placebo on Exercise-Induced Bronchoconstriction in Adult Patients With Asthma NCT06245551 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability and Clinical Activity of ASM-024 in Stable Moderate Asthma NCT01190826 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.