Hydroxyurea and EPO in Sickle Cell Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (32 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: of studystudy drugundergoingreceivingdose
  Phrases that lowered it: participantmmhgscreeningblood pressurediastolic blood
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 51928 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Hydroxyurea and Transfusion NCT03644953 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics and Safety of Epeleuton in Patients With Sickle Cell Disease NCT05861453 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• A Phase III Safety and Efficacy Study of L-Glutamine to Treat Sickle Cell Disease or Sickle βo-thalassemia NCT01179217 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Oral GSK4172239D Compared With Placebo in Sickle Cell Disease Participants Aged 18 to 50 Years NCT05660265 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
• Study to Assess Safety and Impact of SelG1 With or Without Hydroxyurea Therapy in Sickle Cell Disease Patients With Pain Crises NCT01895361 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.