A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of RO7303509 in Participants With Systemic Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (139 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-07-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilityascendingstagesclerosistolerability and
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatescreeningperiodparticipants
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 345 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of RoActemra/Actemra (Tocilizumab) Versus Placebo in Patients With Systemic Sclerosis NCT01532869 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of RO7049665 in Healthy Volunteers NCT03221179 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Single Ascending And Multiple Ascending Dose Study of RO5271983 in Healthy Volunteers NCT01209221 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Study of RO7123520 to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy in Participants With Moderately To Severely Active Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Are Inadequately Responding to Anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF)-Alpha Therapy NCT03001219 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Proof of Biological Activity of SAR100842 in Systemic Sclerosis NCT01651143 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.