Neoadjuvant Anti-PD1 in HCC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerbreasthepatitisdiseaseactive
  Phrases that lowered it: hccaccordingpatients whothe screeningmg
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9853 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab as Neoadjuvant Therapy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) NCT03510871 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Versus Placebo as Adjuvant Therapy in Participants With Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) and Complete Radiological Response After Surgical Resection or Local Ablation (MK-3475-937 / KEYNOTE-937) NCT03867084 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Regorafenib Plus Pembrolizumab in Patients With Advanced or Spreading Liver Cancer Who Have Been Previously Treated With PD-1/PD-L1 Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors NCT04696055 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Immunotherapy With Nivolumab in Combination With Lenvatinib for Advanced Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT03841201 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant and Adjuvant Nivolumab in HCC Patients Treated by Electroporation NCT03630640 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.