Periurethral vs Intravaginal Estrogen for Prevention of Recurrent Urinary Tract Infections
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-06-25, after 2023-01-03 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-06-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: recurrentpatientspatientradiationtherapy
Phrases that lowered it: arthritisproductsapplyeffectapplication -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 44.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 5773 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 75340 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5773 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 44.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- estradiol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Nutraceutical Efficacy for rUTI NCT03395288 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
- Treatment and/or Prevention of Urinary Tract Infections NCT00801021 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Uromune in Treating Recurrent Urinary Tract Infections in Women NCT04096820 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
- Bacteriophages for Treating Urinary Tract Infections in Patients Undergoing Transurethral Resection of the Prostate NCT03140085 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of CLR Compared to Fosfomycin Trometamol in Acute Lower uUTIs NCT02639520 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.