Tolerability and Effectiveness of CGB-500 Topical Ointment, 1% Tofacitinib, for the Treatment of Atopic Dermatitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (41 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-07-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priortherapybreastinstitutionalrecurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: topicaldermatitisatopicvehiclesubjects
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 46.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 25456 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Tofacitinib Ointment For Atopic Dermatitis (Atopic Eczema) NCT02001181 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Phase 2b Safety and Efficacy Study of CGB-500 Topical Ointment With 0.5% and 1% Tofacitnib for Treatment of Atopic Dermatitis NCT06810050 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of CGB-500, 1% Tofacitinib Versus an Active Comparator for Atopic Dermatitis NCT06923228 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Topical Roflumilast in Adults With Atopic Dermatitis NCT01856764 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Safety and Bioequivalence of Pimecrolimus Cream 1% and Elidel R in Treatment of Mild to Moderate Atopic Dermatitis NCT03297502 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.