Pamiparib Plus Surufatinib in Patients With Platinum-resistant Ovarian Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerreceptorovariansmallpatients must
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsevaluate theparticipantto evaluatethe efficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 196 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 213 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase Ib/II Study of Carboplatin + M6620 + Avelumab in PARPi-resistant Ovarian Cancer NCT03704467 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Combination ATR and PARP Inhibitor (CAPRI) Trial With AZD6738 and Olaparib in Recurrent Ovarian Cancer NCT03462342 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Niraparib Versus Niraparib-bevacizumab Combination in Women With Platinum-sensitive Epithelial Ovarian Cancer NCT02354131 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• A Study of Niraparib Combined With Bevacizumab Maintenance Treatment in Participants With Advanced Ovarian Cancer Following Response on Front-Line Platinum-Based Chemotherapy NCT03326193 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of TSR-042, Bevacizumab, and Niraparib in Participants With Recurrent Ovarian Cancer NCT05751629 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.