A Study of KL130008 in Adults With Severe Alopecia Areata
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2024-04-16, after 2022-11-09 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjects witheffectivesubjectrandomizationpotential
Phrases that lowered it: topicaldiseasesweeks beforeclinicalscalp -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- To Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GT20029 Solution in the Treatment of Androgenetic Alopecia (AGA) in Chinese Adult Males NCT06692465 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- To Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of KX-826 in Chinese Female Subjects With Androgenetic Alopecia NCT06409650 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- A Phase II Study in Patients With Alopecia Areata NCT04346316 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- A Study of ATI-50002 Topical Solution for the Treatment of Alopecia Areata NCT03354637 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials terminated
- Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy ofJaktinib Hydrochloride Tablets in Severe Alopecia Areata NCT04034134 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.