ProUrokinase for Mild Ischemic Cerebrovascular Events (PUMICE)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-06-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: strokeischemicmripatientinfarction
  Phrases that lowered it: investigatorinvestigate theto investigatemmhgblood
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 63 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• rhPro-UK in Acute Ischaemic Stroke Within 4.5 Hours of Stroke Onset Trial 2(PROST-2) NCT05700591 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Thrombolysis With rhPro-UK in 4.5-6 Hours After Acute Ischemic Stroke in a Double-blinded,Controlled Trial NCT03578822 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Study of rhPro-UK in Patients With Acute Ischaemic Stroke in 4.5 Hours After Stroke Onset(PROST) NCT03541668 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• A Study of r-PA Treating Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke（RAISE） NCT05295173 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Thrombolysis of Urokinase for Minor Stroke NCT04420351 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.