Allopurinol Versus Atorvastatin to Prevent Complications of Liver Cirrhosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (107 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cirrhosisblindpotentialrenalstudy
  Phrases that lowered it: to evaluateversusto compareatorvastatincompare the
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 161 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 42794 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 137 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Allopurinol to Prevent Cirrhosis Related Morbidities NCT05545670 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of the Combination of Simvastatin Plus Rifaximin in Patients With Decompensated Cirrhosis to Prevent ACLF Development NCT03780673 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Simvastatin Plus Rifaximin in Decompensated Cirrhosis NCT03150459 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Statin Impact on Hepatic Decompensation NCT05563389 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test Whether Two Different Doses of Avenciguat Help People With Liver Cirrhosis and High Blood Pressure in the Portal Vein (Main Vessel Going to the Liver) NCT05161481 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.