A Study of Evorpacept (ALX148) With Enfortumab Vedotin for Subjects With Urothelial Carcinoma (ASPEN-07)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-06-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: functionpriorhave receivedbonecns
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelcombinationdrugsubjectspharmacokinetic
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Enfortumab Vedotin in Japanese Subjects With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma NCT03070990 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• A Study of Enfortumab Vedotin for Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Bladder Cancer NCT03219333 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• A Study of Escalating Doses of ASG-22CE Given as Monotherapy in Subjects With Metastatic Urothelial Cancer and Other Malignant Solid Tumors That Express Nectin-4 NCT02091999 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Enfortumab Vedotin (ASG-22CE) in Chinese Participants With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Cancer Who Previously Received Platinum-containing Chemotherapy and Programmed Cell Death Protein-1 ( PD 1) / (Programmed Death Ligand-1 (PD-L1) Inhibitor Therapy NCT04995419 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• KHK2455 (IDO Inhibitor) Plus Avelumab in Adult Subjects With Advanced Bladder Cancer NCT03915405 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.