BAY2586116 Nasal Spray and OSA Severity

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (201 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hoursbe willingrandomizationparticipationto determine
  Phrases that lowered it: upperlimitperiodmalecaffeine
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) Treated With a Potassium Channel Inhibitor NCT03603678 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Learn More About How Well BAY2586116 Works and How Safe it is in Participants With Moderate to Severe Obstructive Sleep Apnea NCT04713826 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Study on the Safety of Drug BAY2586116 and How it Works in Patients With Obstructive Sleep Apnea (a Sleep Disorder Caused by the Narrowing and Collapse of the Airway During Sleep) Including the Blood Level of the Drug and Effect of Its Doses and Routes of Administration NCT04236440 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Study of Danavorexton (TAK-925) in Adults With Obstructive Sleep Apnea NCT05180890 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Study of AD128 Versus Placebo in Obstructive Sleep Apnea NCT04449133 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.