Zinc Intervention in Elderly for Prevention of Pneumonia
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (273 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-06-30, after 2022-05-03 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 59.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: chemotherapylifeenrollmentwillingeffective
Phrases that lowered it: long termelderlyeffect ofthe effectbmi -
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 118 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 65 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 118 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 15 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 14850 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3237 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 59.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- gluconic acid, zinc gluconate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Immunomodulation by Zinc Supplementation in Children With Pneumonia NCT03690583 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D Supplementation and Acute Respiratory Infection in Older Long-Term Care Residents NCT01102374 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D Supplementation And Varicella Zoster Virus Vaccine Responsiveness In Older Long-Term Care Residents NCT01262300 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Zinc Supplementation in Pediatric Sepsis NCT05366595 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo Controlled Study of NPC-02 in Patients With Zinc Deficiency NCT02337569 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.