Ritlecitinib for Cicatricial Alopecia
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (81 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-03-20, after 2022-12-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectsclinically significantor equalof studyequal to
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantaminotransferasehas historyuln -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 33.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 33.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ritlecitinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Dual JAK1/TYK2 Inhibitor for Cicatricial Alopecia NCT05076006 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
- An Open-Label Single-Arm Clinical Trial to Evaluate The Efficacy of Abatacept in Moderate to Severe Patch Type Alopecia Areata NCT02018042 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Benefit and Safety of GSK2982772 in Moderate to Severe Psoriasis Participants NCT04316585 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
- Study of DAXDILIMAB for the Treatment of Moderate-to-Severe Alopecia Areata NCT05368103 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- The Efficacy and Safety of TLL018 in Moderate-to-severe Plaque Psoriasis NCT05772520 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.