A Study to Assess the Safety of Budesonide/Glycopyrronium/Formoterol Fumarate With a Next-Generation Propellant in Participants With Moderate to Very Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartrandomizationfailuredefineddisease
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantscopdfev1visit
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1752 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 208 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Investigate the Effect on Lung Function of an Approved COPD Treatment (BGF, With HFA Propellant) Compared to BGF Formulated With a Next-Generation Propellant in Participants 40 to 80 Years of Age With COPD NCT06075095 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Bronchospasm Potentially Induced by Next-Generation Propellant vs HFA Propellant in an MDI in Participants With Well/Partially Controlled Asthma NCT05850494 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Study Testing the Superiority of CHF 1535 pMDI 800/24µg Total Daily Dose Compared With CHF 718 pMDI 800µg Total Daily Dose in Adults With Asthma on Medium or High-Dose Inhaled Corticosteroid NCT05292586 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Effect of Next-Generation Propellant MDI on Mucociliary Clearance Vs. HFA Propellant MDI in Healthy Participants NCT05755932 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Batefenterol/Fluticasone Furoate in Treatment of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT02573870 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.