Siplizumab in T1DM
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (243 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-10-20, after 2023-05-18 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1429 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 76 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 8 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: transplantationcellassess thediseasehepatitis
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsinsulinvisitinfluenza -
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 45 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 8 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 8 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 45 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1429 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 76 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, immunology, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- siplizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Diabetes Autoimmunity Withdrawn In New Onset and In Established Patients NCT03895437 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials terminated
- Multiple Ascending Dose (MAD) Study of IMT-002 in HLA-DQ8-positive Type 1 Diabetes NCT04625595 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Tocilizumab (TCZ) in New-onset Type 1 Diabetes NCT02293837 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- Subcutaneous Administration of Otelixizumab to T1DM Patients NCT00946257 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- IMCY-0098 Proof of ACtion in Type 1 Diabetes (IMPACT Study) NCT04524949 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.