High Oral Loading Dose of Cholecalciferol in Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (136 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metformindiabetestypeliverchronic
  Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofdayadultfemale
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 150 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 134 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 303955 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• DHA and Vitamin D in Children With Biopsy-proven NAFLD NCT02098317 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Treatment for Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver With Different Doses of Vitamin E NCT01792115 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Effects of Docosahexaenoic Acid (DHA) on Children With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) NCT00885313 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Tolerance of Treatment With DHA, Choline and Vitamin E in Children With Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis NCT01934777 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• The Effect Of Omega-3 Fatty Acids on Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease NCT01277237 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.