Efficacy and Safety of Aflibercept in Patients With Neovascular Age-related Macular Degeneration
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-07-31, after 2019-10-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: study eyemacularamdretinalscreening visit
Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacysafety ofpresencedrug -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 40.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 4557 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 55 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 6 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 17534 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4557 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 91.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 40.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- aflibercept
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of Biosimilar Candidate Xlucane Versus Lucentis® in Patients With nAMD NCT03805100 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- Safety and Exploratory Efficacy Study of SF0166 in the Treatment of Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration (AMD) NCT02914639 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of the Safety and Efficacy of ALS-L1023 Administered in Combination With Ranibizumab in Patients With Wet-AMD NCT03725501 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- Clinical Study of ALT-L9 to Determine Safety, Efficacy and Pharmacokinetics in Neovascular AMD NCT04058535 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- IAI Versus Sham as Prophylaxis Against Conversion to Neovascular AMD NCT02462889 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.