A Study to Assess the Effect of AZD4041 on Respiratory Drive in Recreational Opioid Users.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (289 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-05-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: multipleplacebomsdosesdouble blind
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyparticipantsscreeningthe effectadministration
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1740 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 207 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 184214 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Safety Study of AZD4041 in Healthy Participants NCT05233085 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Study for Naltrexone on the Abuse Potential of Methylphenidate NCT03769064 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A SAD, MAD and Food Effect Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, PK, and PD of AJA001 in Healthy Subjects NCT06019065 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD4041 in Healthy Volunteers NCT04076540 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Multiple Doses of ASP8062 With a Single Dose of Morphine in Recreational Opioid Using Participants NCT04448561 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.