Effect of Korean Red Ginseng on Oxidation in Middle-aged and Elderly Sub-health Population

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (273 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diseasekidneychronicredor allergic
  Phrases that lowered it: healthproductshealthybmiand safety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 30 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 90 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effect of Red Ginseng Extract on Changes in Indicators of Immune Function in Vietnamese Healthy Volunteers NCT05480774 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trials on Evaluate the Red Ginseng and Fermented-Red Ginseng Affect to Drug Metabolizing Enzyme and Transporter in Healthy Volunteers NCT02056743 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Effect of Korean Red Ginseng on Central Blood Pressure in Patient With Essential Hypertension NCT02211352 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Bioequivalence Study of Sanchi-Tongshu Capsule (Enteric Coated Pellets) NCT02316730 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• American Ginseng to Improve HIV-Associated Fatigue: A Randomized, Placebo-Controlled, Parallel Design, Multiple-Dose Clinical Trial NCT01500096 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.