Effect of Mesenchymal Stem Cells on Healing of Foot Ulcers in Diabetes Patients.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (318 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-11-28, after 2022-12-15 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: dialysisindexdiabetesmonthspilot
Phrases that lowered it: participantsulcercancerpatientstrial -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, dermatology, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Bone Marrow Derived Allogeneic Mesenchymal Stromal Cells to Non-healing Diabetic Foot Wounds NCT03509870 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
- Safety of ALLO-ASC-DFU in the Patients With Diabetic Foot Ulcers NCT02394886 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- PHASE 1, OPEN-LABEL SAFETY STUDY OF UMBILICAL CORD LINING MESENCHYMAL STEM CELLS (CORLICYTE®) TO HEAL CHRONIC DIABETIC FOOT ULCERS NCT04104451 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- Allogeneic ABCB5-positive Stem Cells for Treatment of DFU Malum Perforans NCT03267784 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Treatment of Chronic Wounds in Diabetic Foot Syndrome With Allogeneic Adipose Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells NCT03865394 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.