Exenatide for Smoking Cessation and Prevention of Weight Gain
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-03-10, after 2022-12-07 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-03-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: stagethe followingrandomizationnotepost
Phrases that lowered it: smokingnicotinecigarettesthe studyweight -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 26.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 365 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 131577 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 365 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 97 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 131577 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4045 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 26.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- exenatide, nicotine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Exenatide Once Weekly for Smoking Cessation NCT02975297 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Daily Liraglutide for Nicotine Dependence NCT03712098 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Effects of Semaglutide on Nicotine Intake NCT05530577 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Varenicline in Combination With Nicotine Replacement Therapy for Smoking Cessation NCT01444131 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Randomized Trial to Evaluate the Effectiveness of X-22 as a Smoking Cessation Aid NCT01400815 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.