Motixafortide and Natalizumab to Mobilize CD34+ Hematopoietic Stem Cells for Gene Therapies in Sickle Cell Disease (SCD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (3,836 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-06-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stemcellhematopoietictreatingprior
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluateadultmethotrexatethe studycount
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 30.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 131 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 171522 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 885 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pilot and Feasibility Trial of Plerixafor for Hematopoietic Stem Cell (HSC) Mobilization in Patients With Sickle Cell Disease Pilot and Feasibility Trial of Plerixafor for Hematopoietic Stem Cell (HSC) Mobilization in Patients With Sickle Cell Disease NCT02989701 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Study of MGTA-145 and Plerixafor in Patients With Sickle Cell Disease NCT05445128 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Escalation of Plerixafor for Mobilization of CD34+ Hematopoietic Progenitor Cells and Evaluation of Globin Gene Transfer in Patients With Sickle Cell Disease NCT02193191 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of BIVV003 for Autologous Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation in Patients With Severe Sickle Cell Disease NCT03653247 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Assessment of Tolerance of Mobilizing Peripheral Hematopoietic Stem Cells by Plerixafor in Sickle Cell Patients NCT02212535 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.