Study of Edecesertib in Participants With Cutaneous Lupus Erythematosus (CLE)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 25% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2026-01-14, after 2023-04-17 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebo controlledpresence ofsignificantto evaluateat screening
Phrases that lowered it: bodytopicalindividualsparticipantscutaneous -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 37 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past trials: 484 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 484 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 19.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 37 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Edecesertib in Participants With Cutaneous Lupus Erythematosus (CLE) NCT04809623 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
- Proof of Concept Study of SAR443122 in Patients With Cutaneous Lupus Erythematosus NCT04781816 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Safety Study of AMG 557 in Subjects With Subacute Cutaneous Lupus Erythematosus NCT01389895 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
- The WILLOW Study With M5049 in SLE and CLE (SCLE and/or DLE) (WILLOW) NCT05162586 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- A Study to Learn About the Study Medicine (PF-06823859) in Adults With Active CLE or SLE With Skin Symptoms. NCT05879718 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.