GBT021601-022: A Study of GBT021601 in Participants With Sickle Cell Disease (SCD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (370 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: extension studysicklelast doselong termchildbearing potential
  Phrases that lowered it: participantevaluate thesafety ofto evaluateopen label
• Sponsor's past trials: 2123 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 181 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Extension Study to Further Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability of GBT440 in Patients With Sickle Cell Disease Who Participated in the Study GBT440-001 NCT03041909 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Oral GSK4172239D Compared With Placebo in Sickle Cell Disease Participants Aged 18 to 50 Years NCT05660265 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
• Extension Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Luspatercept in Participants With β-Thalassemia Previously Enrolled in A536-04 (A536-06/MK-6143-004) NCT02268409 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of FTX-6058 NCT04586985 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Long-term Safety of Inclacumab Administered to Participants With Sickle Cell Disease NCT05348915 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.