Melatonin for Post Operative Delirium Prevention in Elderly Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-07-05, after 2022-12-10 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-07-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: priorstatuscolorectalplacebo controlledrandomised
Phrases that lowered it: evaluate thepatients whowill evaluateimpairmentphysical -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 31 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 49 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 65 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 49 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 31 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 37367 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5134 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 66.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- melatonin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Melatonin for Prevention of Postoperative Delirium After Lower Limb Fracture Surgery in Elderly Patients NCT04335968 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- Intraoperative Midazolam on Delirium Outcome of Elderly Patients NCT06963112 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Ramelteon in the Prevention of Post-operative Delirium NCT02324153 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
- Rivastigmine Patch Compared to Melatonin Patch in Prevention of Postoperative Delirium NCT04189666 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Combination of Haloperidol and Magnesium for Delirium Prevention in Critically Ill Elderly NCT06168773 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.