Parent Study: Study Understanding Pre-Exposure pRophylaxis of NOvel Anitbodies (SUPERNOVA) Sub-study: Study Understanding Pre-Exposure pRophylaxis of NOvel Anitbodies (SUPERNOVA Sub-study)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (47 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1768 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: prior tomonths priordefinedacutewithin months
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantvaccinehealthyreceipt
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 194 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 14 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 81.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Randomized, Open-label, Dose-ranging Study in Adults and Pediatric Individuals ≥ 12 Years of Age to Assess the Safety, Immunogenicity, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of AZD7442, for Pre-exposure Prophylaxis of COVID-19 NCT05375760 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of V591 (COVID-19 Vaccine) in Healthy Participants (V591-001) NCT04498247 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Learn About New COVD-19 RNA Vaccine Candidates for New Variants in Healthy Individuals NCT05997290 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Study o Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of MVC-COV1901, CT-COV-21 Sub-study NCT05038618 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Phase III Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study of AZD7442 for Pre-exposure Prophylaxis of COVID-19 in Adult. NCT04625725 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.