A Study to Investigate The Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of JZP441 in Sleep-deprived Healthy Participants

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ascendingtolerability pharmacokineticssafety tolerabilityand pharmacodynamicspresence
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyblood pressuremmhgparticipantsdiastolic blood
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 122 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Multiple Ascending Dose Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of JZP441 in Healthy Participants NCT05720494 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of JNJ-42847922 in Participants With Insomnia Disorder Without Psychiatric Comorbidity NCT02464046 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of JNJ-42847922 in Participants With Insomnia Disorder NCT03375203 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate Safety and Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of JNJ-55375515 in Healthy Male Participants NCT03405441 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacodynamics, and Pharmacokinetics of JNJ-404118413 in Healthy Male Patients NCT01951053 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.