A Study to Learn How Well the Study Treatment Zabedosertib (BAY1834845) Works and How Safe it is Compared to Placebo in Adult Participants With Moderate-to-severe Atopic Dermatitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationtreatmentplacebotreatedsevere
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantdermatitisatopiccheck
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 984 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 58 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Pilot Study Using Anakinra/Kineret for the Treatment of Patients With Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT01122914 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
• Effect of Benralizumab in Atopic Dermatitis NCT03563066 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Study of the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of BTX 1204 in Patients With Moderate Atopic Dermatitis NCT03824405 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study to Learn About the Study Medicine Etrasimod in Adults With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis (AD) Who Have Already Tried Treatments Taken by Mouth or by Injection NCT05732454 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of CBP-201 in Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis in China NCT05017480 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.