Microfragmented Adipose Tissue Compared to Corticosteroid Injection for the Treatment of Knee Osteoarthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (114 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-04-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: injurypainenrollmentdiagnosis ofpost
  Phrases that lowered it: kneeparticipantparticipantsthe effecteffect of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Intra-articular Transplantation of Autologous Adipose Derived Stromal Vascular Faction (SVF) for Treatment of Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT03940950 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Autologous Culture Expanded Mesenchymal Stromal Cells for Knee Osteoarthritis NCT02805855 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Study of Intra-articular Injections vs Placebo in Patients With Pain From Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT01887678 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Phase 2B Micronized DHACM vs. Saline in the Treatment of Knee Osteoarthritis NCT05796765 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
• Study of OLT1177 Gel to Treat Moderate to Severe OA Knee Pain NCT02104050 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.