A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Dosimetry of [177Lu]Lu-PSMA-617 in Chinese Adult Male Patients With Progressive PSMA-Positive mCRPC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-04-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 60% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1539 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 170 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcancermetastaseschemotherapysubject
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantmalethe efficacychinese
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 14 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of 177Lu-PSMA-617 In Metastatic Castrate-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03511664 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• 64Cu-SAR-BBN and 67CU SAR-BBN for Identification and Treatment of Gastrin Releasing Peptide Receptor (GRPR)-Expressing Metastatic Castrate Resistant Prostate Cancer in Patients Who Are Ineligible for Therapy With 177Lu-PSMA-617 (COMBAT) NCT05633160 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• PRINCE (PSMA-lutetium Radionuclide Therapy and ImmuNotherapy in Prostate CancEr) NCT03658447 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• 177Lu-DOTA-TLX591 Safety, Biodistribution and Dosimetry Study NCT04786847 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• The Present Study Aims to Compare Patients Who Receive the Investigational Product (177Lu-DOTA-rosopatamab) Plus Standard of Care, in Comparison to Standard of Care Only NCT04876651 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.