A Phase 3 Clinical Study to Evaluate Lemzoparlimab for Injection in Combination With Azacitidine (AZA) Versus AZA Monotherapy in Treatment-naïve Patients With Higher-risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (139 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapymdsmarrowtumortherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelperiodevaluateand safetyefficacy and
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 50% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 39.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase Ib Study of Select Drug Combinations in Patients With Lower Risk MDS NCT04810611 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
• Romiplostim Treatment of Thrombocytopenia in Subjects With Low or Intermediate-1 Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT00614523 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• A Study of Atezolizumab Administered Alone or in Combination With Azacitidine in Participants With Myelodysplastic Syndromes NCT02508870 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Adverse Events and Movement of Lemzoparlimab in Body When Used Intravenously (IV) With Azacitidine Subcutaneously or IV and Venetoclax Orally in Participants With Acute Myeloid Leukemia and With Azacitidine With or Without Venetoclax in Participants With Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT04912063 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• A Study of MBG453 in Combination With Hypomethylating Agents in Subjects With IPSS-R Intermediate, High or Very High Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS). NCT03946670 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.