Pirfenidone in Adult Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-03-30, after 2022-12-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: chronic kidneykidney diseaseonsetplacebo controlledsevere
Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluateand safetylungsafety of -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 54.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 26 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 48 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 48 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 26 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 33051 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4847 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 54.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- pirfenidone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of TTI-101 in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT05671835 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
- Treatment of Pulmonary Fibrosis Due to COVID-19 With Fuzheng Huayu NCT04279197 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Study on Intravenous Injection of SHR-1906 in the Treatment of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT05722964 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Study Evaluating INS018_055 Administered Orally to Subjects With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT05938920 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess the Safety and Tolerability of N-Acetylcysteine When Administered With Pirfenidone to Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT02707640 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.