Colchicine in Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting After Acute Coronary Syndrome
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-12-21, after 2022-02-05 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: acutebowelhoursplacebolong term
Phrases that lowered it: patientsevaluatetherapyarterycoronary -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 61 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 201 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 11 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 201 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 2.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 61 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 19724 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2019 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 79.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 12.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- colchicine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- COLchicine On-admission to Reduce Inflammation in Acute Coronary Syndrome (COLOR-ACS) NCT05250596 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- Colchicine to Prevent Post-Pericardiotomy Syndrome and Atrial Fibrillation NCT02177266 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
- Effect of Colchicine on the Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in Open Heart Surgery Patients NCT03021343 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Effect of Low Dose ColchiciNe on the InciDence of POAF NCT03015831 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials terminated
- Optimal Dose of Acetylsalicylic Acid After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting NCT02482857 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.