A Study to Test How Well Different Doses of BI 765250 Are Tolerated by People With a Skin Disease Called Plaque Psoriasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (139 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: psoriasisplaquedefinedplacebomalignancy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantdrugbivisit
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 731 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Single Rising Dose Study of BI 655066 in Patients With Moderate and Severe Psoriasis NCT01577550 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• This Study is Done in Patients With Plaque Psoriasis and Tests How Well They Tolerate BI 730357 and How Effective it is NCT03635099 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test How Well Patients With Plaque Psoriasis Tolerate BI 730357 Over a Longer Period and How Effective it is NCT03835481 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy, Safety and Immunogenicity of BI 695501 Versus Humira® in Patients With Moderate to Severe Chronic Plaque Psoriasis NCT02850965 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test Whether BI 655130 (Spesolimab) Prevents Flare-ups in Patients With Generalized Pustular Psoriasis NCT04399837 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.