Study of WPV01 Compared With Placebo in Patients With Mild/Moderate COVID-19 Infection

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-07-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: phase iipriorrandomizationconcurrentprotocol
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsmoderateand safetyevaluate theto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase III Clinical Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of WPV01 in Patients With Mild/Moderate COVID-19 NCT06197217 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• JT001 (VV116) for the Treatment of COVID-19 NCT05582629 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• JINZHEN for Treatment of Mild to Moderate COVID-19 NCT05092503 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Randomized, Double-Blind Placebo Controlled, Multi-regional Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GT0918 for the Treatment of Mild to Moderate COVID-19 Male Patients NCT04869228 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
• PBI-0451 (Pomotrelvir) Phase 2 Study in Nonhospitalized Symptomatic Adults With COVID-19 NCT05543707 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.