Phase III Study of Efficacy and Safety of Secukinumab Versus Placebo, in Combination With Glucocorticoid Taper Regimen, in Patients With Polymyalgia Rheumatica (PMR)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-02-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: screeningplacebosclerosissymptomsprior to
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantulnand safetyefficacy and
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 35.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1522 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 166 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 123879 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of Sarilumab in Patients With Polymyalgia Rheumatica NCT03600818 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
• Tocilizumab Effect iN pOlymyalgia Rheumatica NCT01713842 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of tocilizuMAb Versus Placebo in Polymyalgia rHeumatica With glucocORticoid dEpendence SEMAPHORE NCT02908217 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• A 3-arm Proof of Concept Study of AIN457, ACZ885 or Corticosteroids in Patients With Polymyalgia Rheumatica NCT01364389 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
• Abatacept in earLy Onset Polymyalgia Rheumatica: Study ALORS NCT03632187 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.