Phase 3 Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Aficamten Compared to Metoprolol Succinate in Adults With Symptomatic oHCM

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularleftheartmmatrial
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyobstructiveefficacy andsafety ofkg m2
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 308781 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 22476 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 3 Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Aficamten Compared to Placebo in Adults With Symptomatic oHCM NCT05186818 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Dose-finding Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of CK-3773274 in Adults With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy NCT04219826 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of MYK-224 in Participants With Symptomatic Obstructive Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy NCT05556343 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
• Clinical Study to Evaluate Mavacamten (MYK-461) in Adults With Symptomatic Obstructive Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy NCT03470545 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study of Mavacamten in Adults With Symptomatic Non-Obstructive Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (nHCM) NCT03442764 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.