A Study of Tobemstomig Plus Platinum-Based Chemotherapy vs Pembrolizumab Plus Platinum-Based Chemotherapy in Participants With Previously Untreated Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-04-30, after 2023-03-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 95 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientrandomizationbowelstagelimited to
Phrases that lowered it: vaccineparticipantsevaluate thepharmacokineticsto evaluate -
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 1294 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1294 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 95 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 5 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 247640 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 37883 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 18.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- carboplatin, paclitaxel, pembrolizumab, pemetrexed, tobemstomig
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study Evaluating the Efficacy and the Safety of First-line Chemotherapy Combined With the Therapeutic Vaccine Named TG4010 and Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Non-squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT03353675 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- Study of Pemetrexed+Platinum Chemotherapy With or Without Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With First Line Metastatic Nonsquamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (MK-3475-189/KEYNOTE-189) NCT02578680 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- Study of Pembrolizumab Versus Docetaxel in Participants Previously Treated for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (MK-3475-033/KEYNOTE-033) NCT02864394 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- Study of Pemetrexed + Platinum Chemotherapy With or Without Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Adults With Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor- (TKI)-Resistant Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor- (EGFR)-Mutated Metastatic Non-squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) (MK-3475-789/KEYNOTE-789) NCT03515837 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Study of Pembrolizumab With Maintenance Olaparib or Maintenance Pemetrexed in First-line (1L) Metastatic Nonsquamous Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) (MK-7339-006, KEYLYNK-006) NCT03976323 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.