A Multiple-Dose Study of LY3493269 in Healthy Participants
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 4% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-06-20, after 2023-03-23 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “safety”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: multipleheartevidenceacutesyndrome
Phrases that lowered it: healthyscreeningthe pharmacokineticsformulationsopen label -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 50% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 1539 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 136 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1539 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 136 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 50% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- caprylate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of LY3493269 in Healthy Participants NCT04682106 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- A Safety Study of LY3493269 in Healthy Participants NCT04498390 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3031207 in Healthy Subjects NCT01449630 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3016859 in Healthy Volunteers NCT01545583 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3045697 in Healthy Participants NCT01750853 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.