Efficacy and Safety of Zerafil® (Omalizumab) in Participants With Uncontrolled Moderate to Severe Allergic Asthma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diseasepatientuncontrolledtreatmentrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmaand safetysafety ofefficacy andtrial
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Omalizumab in Patients With Moderate to Severe Persistent Allergic Asthma Not Adequately Controlled Despite GINA (2009) Step 4 Therapy NCT01202903 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Effect of Omalizumab in Patients With Severe Persistent Non-atopic Uncontrolled Asthma NCT01007149 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study of MEMP1972A in Patients With Allergic Asthma Inadequately Controlled on Inhaled Steroids And A Second Controller (COSTA) NCT01582503 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Omalizumab as Monotherapy and as Adjunct Therapy to Multi-Allergen OIT in Food Allergic Participants NCT03881696 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study of MEMP1972A in the Prevention of Allergen-Induced Airway Obstruction in Patients With Mild Asthma (SOLARIO) NCT01196039 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.