The Efficacy and Safety of DWP14012 in Chinese Patients With Reflux Esophagitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (213 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withpriorrandomizationcontraceptionmalignancies
  Phrases that lowered it: hcvdiseasesinflammatorymedical historygastrointestinal
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 36 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 71 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• JP-1366 20mg Versus Esomeprazole 40mg in Patients With Erosive Esophagitis NCT05443984 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• The Phase III Clinical Trial of X842 Capsules for Reflux Esophagitis NCT07079540 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of X842 in Patients With Reflux Esophagitis NCT04531475 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Multi-center, Randomized, Double-blind, Parallel-group, Placebo Controlled Phase III Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of LXI-15028 in Non-erosive Reflux Disease in Chinese Patients for 4 Weeks NCT03591653 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Study in Patients With Erosive Esophagitis to Investigate Safety, Tolerability, and Healing Rates After 4 Weeks Treatment of X842 or Lansoprazole and Symptom Pattern During Subsequent 4 Weeks Treatment With Lansoprazole NCT05055128 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.