Efficacy and Safety Clinical Study of VC005 Tablets in Subjects With Active Ankylosing Spondylitis.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-05-11, after 2023-04-26 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-05-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectscreeningprior topainsubjects
Phrases that lowered it: combinationpatients whophase ii109the trial -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 47.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 155113 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 8 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 6 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 155113 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 22466 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 47.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 3.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- tofacitinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Recombinant Anti-human IL-17A/F Humanized Monoclonal Antibody Injection in the Treatment of Moderate-to-Severe Active AS NCT07498634 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
- Evaluate the Preliminary Efficacy, Safety, and PK of Subcutaneous JS005 in Chinese Adult Patients With Active AS NCT05212051 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- Study to Demonstrate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of an Intravenous Regimen of Secukinumab Compared to Placebo in Subjects With Active axSpA NCT04156620 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Phase II Trial of VDJ001 in Patients With Moderate-to-severe Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT05957107 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- A Phase I Clinical Study of VC005 Tablets in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis. NCT05874622 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.